Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-04

AAPL

290 historical chart-shape analogs of AAPL as of 2026-06-04, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.55

strong

5d median

+0.00%

hit-rate 46%

5d IQR

[-1.13%, +1.64%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-3.65%, +4.38%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.01%

IQR

[-0.93%, +3.07%]

Hit-rate

51%

Top 5-day features

momentum_20d(negative)

importance 0.94

vol_regime=high(negative)

importance 0.94

yield_curve_state=inverted(positive)

importance 0.86

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 1 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -1.3% to +1.8%

252 setups

+0.0%

50% win

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How to read this

Consensus 0.55 is in the strong band — historical analogs of AAPL's current chart shape agreed on direction. The IQR is tradeable: a stop at the 10th percentile (-3.65%) and a target at the 75th percentile (+1.64%) reflects what the cohort historically realized. Position sizing scales with consensus.

Live cohort

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-anchor feature attribution:

Open AAPL in Chart Library →

Snapshot built at 2026-06-05T04:30:08.448260+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (6099ms retrieval at build time).