Understanding a market begins with a better comparison. Chart Library studies what past situations can tell us about the present—and where the evidence ends.
Find comparable historical states. Examine the range of outcomes that followed. Then ask how much confidence that comparison deserves.
One multiplier, ×1.48, fitted on the earlier half lifts held-out gap-day coverage from 0.70 to 0.83. The under-coverage lives in non-earnings gaps and in up-gaps; earnings gaps were already covered by the earnings conditioner, so the new one belongs on gap days that are not earnings sessions.
Tighter neighborhoods are genuinely more similar in what followed: the dispersion ratio falls monotonically as k shrinks, at every horizon. The tails narrow; the interquartile range barely moves. The state definition carries real information, but about how much, not which way.
The event-banded set is wider, not narrower, and no better at equal coverage. The finding underneath mattered more: the served analog set for an event day is the state's twins, not the event's, and the served band under-covers event days at 5 days. That under-coverage is what study 103 repaired.
The public ledger currently contains 14 selected studies. Each includes its research question, decision criteria, and available source documents. Negative findings belong in the record too.
A fixed selection rule identifies unusual market states. Historical outcome ranges are published, then compared with what actually happens as sessions settle.
Read the daily noteA research tool should be examined as carefully as the markets it studies. The calibration record separates current service performance from frozen historical evaluations.
Inspect the coverage recordWhat makes one historical market state comparable to another? Study chart structure alongside the conditions in which it occurred.
Explore the memoryDo historical outcome ranges cover new observations as often as they claim? Test coverage, width, and the conditions where a method breaks down.
Examine the evidenceDo earnings, gaps, or company disclosures improve a comparison? A plausible story must earn its place through a defined test.
Read the studiesRead the studies, examine the evidence, and use the research tools without a subscription. Chart Library is built for curious readers, independent researchers, and developers alike.