Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-04

MSFT

291 historical chart-shape analogs of MSFT as of 2026-06-04, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.30

moderate

5d median

+0.74%

hit-rate 54%

5d IQR

[-3.40%, +3.56%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-8.15%, +7.68%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

+0.93%

IQR

[-3.29%, +4.94%]

Hit-rate

56%

Top 5-day features

broke_50d_high=false(positive)

importance 1.30

vol_regime=low(positive)

importance 1.20

broke_50d_low=false(negative)

importance 1.17

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 3 clusters · 5-day return

Uptrend

middle 50%: +1.1% to +9.2%

46 setups

+4.0%

80% win

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -3.2% to +3.0%

199 setups

+0.2%

51% win

Downtrend

middle 50%: -7.3% to +2.0%

45 setups

-2.3%

38% win

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How to read this

Consensus 0.30 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. The conformal 80% band [-8.15%, +7.68%] is your defined-risk envelope. Modest sizing.

Live cohort

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-anchor feature attribution:

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Snapshot built at 2026-06-05T04:30:18.654313+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (9857ms retrieval at build time).