Cohort snapshot · 2026-06-04

NVDA

264 historical chart-shape analogs of NVDA as of 2026-06-04, plus what they did over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days. No prediction — the empirical distribution.

Consensus

0.15

weak

5d median

-0.16%

hit-rate 49%

5d IQR

[-3.74%, +3.18%]

middle 50%

Conformal 80%

[-11.61%, +10.27%]

p10–p90

10-day forward distribution

Median

-0.31%

IQR

[-5.34%, +4.04%]

Hit-rate

47%

Top 5-day features

pct_off_ath(positive)

importance 1.14

macro_state=bullish(negative)

importance 1.07

vol_regime=low(positive)

importance 0.93

Historical playbook

300 analogs split into outcome modes by what they actually did over the next 5 days. Not a prediction — a distribution.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 2 clusters · 5-day return

Smooth sideways

middle 50%: -2.3% to +3.9%

73 setups

+0.3%

53% win

Smooth downtrend

middle 50%: -6.0% to +3.1%

38 setups

-1.4%

34% win

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How to read this

Consensus 0.15 is weak — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, macro catalyst, or a price move that strengthens the consensus) before sizing into NVDA.

Live cohort

This snapshot is built daily. For the live retrieval against the freshest bar, distribution chart, and per-anchor feature attribution:

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Snapshot built at 2026-06-05T04:30:24.879637+00:00. Refreshed daily. Source: chartlibrary.io cohort_analyze API (5883ms retrieval at build time).