AMD Earnings Are Among the Most Volatile in Semis
AMD's transformation from a struggling underdog to a top-three semiconductor company has been one of the decade's great growth stories. Along the way, its earnings volatility has actually increased rather than decreased — the company's reports now move the stock more, on average, than they did in 2016-2018.
Across 40+ earnings reports from 2016 to early 2026, AMD has closed up the day after earnings about 55% of the time, with an average 1-day move of roughly +1.4% and a standard deviation near 7.5%. That's slightly less volatile than Tesla but considerably more volatile than Apple — and almost as dispersed as NVDA.
Base Rates: Modest Post-Earnings Drift
AMD's 5-day post-earnings return has averaged roughly +2.1% with a win rate near 57%. The 10-day return has averaged around +2.8% with a win rate near 56%. These are meaningful edges versus AMD's unconditional baselines (roughly +1.0% for 10-day), though smaller than NVDA's post-earnings edges.
The asymmetry is worth noting: AMD tends to rally more on beats than it falls on misses. The largest post-earnings gains have exceeded +20% (notably during the 2020-2021 rally cycle), while the largest declines have been closer to -15%. The right tail is fatter than the left, which is a feature of most successful growth-stock cycles.
- 1-day base rate: ~55% positive, average move ~+1.4%
- 5-day base rate: ~57% positive, average move ~+2.1%
- 10-day base rate: ~56% positive, average move ~+2.8%
- Standard deviation of 1-day post-earnings return: ~7.5%
Data Center Guidance Has Dominated Recent Reactions
Since 2023, AMD's earnings reactions have been driven primarily by data center guidance — specifically, projected MI300 GPU sales and hyperscaler commentary. The numerical beats and misses matter less than the forward commentary on AI accelerator demand, customer concentration, and share capture versus NVDA.
This shift is visible in the data. Reports where guidance exceeded consensus have averaged a 1-day move of roughly +4.2% with a 68% win rate. Reports where guidance missed consensus have averaged roughly -3.7% with a 32% win rate. The reaction spread has widened significantly compared to pre-2023 reports.
Post-Earnings Drift Is Stronger on Large Gaps
Conditioning on the initial reaction sharpens the base rates. After AMD earnings that produce a 1-day move of +5% or more, the 10-day follow-through has averaged roughly +3.8% with a win rate near 66%. After earnings that produce a 1-day move of -5% or worse, the 10-day follow-through has averaged roughly -2.4% with a win rate for shorts near 60%.
This is stronger post-earnings drift than we see on Tesla and comparable to NVDA. Traders willing to wait for the initial reaction before positioning have captured a meaningful edge historically.
Using Pattern Data
The most reliable approach for AMD earnings: after the report, compare the resulting chart against historical analogs. Chart Library's pattern search will surface similar setups from prior quarters — including analogs from other semis like NVDA, AVGO, and MRVL.
from chartlibrary import ChartLibrary cl = ChartLibrary(api_key="cl_...") result = cl.intelligence("AMD") print(result.forward_returns['10d']) for m in result.matches[:3]: print(m.symbol, m.date, m.distance)
Related reading: our posts on NVDA after earnings and stock breakouts 2025 data offer useful context on the broader semiconductor complex.