What NVDA Typically Does After Earnings (10 Years of Data)

Why NVDA's Post-Earnings Behavior Is Unique

Few stocks move the market the way NVIDIA does around earnings. Since the AI training boom took hold in 2023, NVDA reports have become de facto macro events — driving moves in SPY, QQQ, SMH, and the entire semiconductor complex. But for traders, the more interesting question is what the stock itself tends to do after the print.

Using Chart Library's database of 24M+ chart embeddings spanning 2016-2026, we looked at every NVDA earnings day and measured the forward returns from the day after the report through the next 10 trading days. The results show a stock with a pronounced post-earnings drift, though with more variance than casual observers assume.

Base Rate: NVDA Closes Up About 61% of the Time 1 Day After Earnings

Across roughly 40 earnings reports from 2016 through early 2026, NVDA closed higher the day after earnings about 61% of the time. The base rate climbs slightly over longer windows: around 63% positive over 5 days, and around 60% positive over 10 days. In other words, buying NVDA at the close the day after a report has been a winning proposition about six times out of ten — but the real edge comes from the magnitude of the winners, not the frequency.

The average 1-day move has been roughly +3.1%, with a median closer to +2.2% (the mean is pulled higher by a handful of outsized rallies). Over 5 days the average is around +4.4%, and over 10 days it's about +5.6%. Compare that to the unconditional average 10-day return for NVDA over the same period — about +1.2% — and the earnings drift effect is clearly meaningful.

• 1-day base rate: ~61% positive, average move ~+3.1%, median ~+2.2%
• 5-day base rate: ~63% positive, average move ~+4.4%, median ~+3.0%
• 10-day base rate: ~60% positive, average move ~+5.6%, median ~+3.8%
• Unconditional 10-day average (any day): ~+1.2%

The Distribution Is Wider Than It Looks

Averages hide the tails. NVDA's biggest post-earnings rally in the dataset was roughly +24% over 10 days following a May 2023 report that became the most famous earnings reaction in recent market history. But the dataset also contains several double-digit declines — most notably the fall 2018 crypto hangover and the early 2022 inventory correction. When NVDA misses, it tends to miss hard.

The standard deviation of 10-day post-earnings returns is roughly 8-9%, meaning a typical print can move the stock anywhere from -6% to +11% over the next two weeks. Traders pricing options around NVDA earnings should expect — and often see — implied volatility in the 7-9% range for the event day itself.

Regime Matters More Than People Admit

Not all earnings reactions are created equal. When SPY was trending up in the 30 days before the report, NVDA's post-earnings returns skewed significantly more positive — a 5-day average closer to +6% versus roughly +1% when the broader market was weak heading into the print. Market regime is one of the most underrated filters for event-driven trades.

The gap matters too. NVDA tends to gap at the open after earnings about 85% of the time, with an average absolute gap size around 5%. Gap-ups are followed by positive 5-day returns about 66% of the time; gap-downs are followed by positive 5-day returns about 52% of the time, suggesting a modest 'buy the dip' effect even on disappointing prints.

How to Use This Data in Your Research

The base rates above give you a starting point, but the real power comes from conditioning on the current setup. Before the next NVDA print, you can use Chart Library's API to pull the current chart pattern and find the 10 most similar historical analogs — many of which will be pre- or post-earnings bars from other quarters.

Here's a minimal call using the Python SDK that returns the forward-return statistics for NVDA's current setup:

from chartlibrary import ChartLibrary cl = ChartLibrary(api_key="cl_...") result = cl.intelligence("NVDA", compact=True) print(result.forward_returns) # {'1d': {'mean': 0.021, 'win_rate': 0.60, ...}, # '5d': {'mean': 0.038, 'win_rate': 0.63, ...}, # '10d': {'mean': 0.051, 'win_rate': 0.60, ...}}

You can also explore NVDA's current pattern visually on the Chart Library app — no API key required. Compare the AI-generated summary to the base rates above and see whether the current setup tilts bullish or bearish versus the historical average.