AMD Gap Up History: Follow-Through Data

AMD Gaps Frequently

AMD opens more than 1% above the prior close on roughly 16% of all trading days — less often than Tesla (22%) or NVDA (18%), but much more often than Apple (9%) or SPY (3%). Gap-ups exceeding 3% occur on about 5% of days. The combination of high retail activity, sensitivity to semi-industry news, and volatile earnings reactions keeps AMD firmly in the 'frequent gapper' category.

Historically, these gaps have been playable — not on every instance, but with the right filters. The simple 'buy any gap' strategy hasn't worked; the gap-size and volume-filtered strategy has produced a real edge.

Base Rates: Follow-Through Tilts Positive on 5-Day

AMD gap-ups of 1%+ have averaged a same-day open-to-close return of roughly -0.2% with a 50% win rate — essentially a coin flip intraday. But the 5-day forward return has averaged roughly +1.4% with a 57% win rate, and the 10-day forward return has averaged around +2.2% with a 58% win rate.

The pattern mirrors what we see on NVDA and Tesla: small gaps fade intraday, but the broader momentum that drove the gap continues over the following week. Short-term fade, medium-term follow-through.

• Same-day open-to-close after 1%+ gap up: ~-0.2%, ~50% win rate
• 5-day return after 1%+ gap up: ~+1.4% average, ~57% win rate
• 10-day return after 1%+ gap up: ~+2.2% average, ~58% win rate
• 3%+ gap up 5-day return: ~+2.8% average, ~62% win rate

Volume Is the Critical Filter

On AMD, volume filtering dramatically changes the base rates. Requiring opening-hour volume to be at least 130% of the 20-day average shifts the 5-day win rate to roughly 64% and the average return to around +2.8%. High-volume gaps are driven by institutional flow; low-volume gaps are often retail or overnight drift that fades.

In the lowest volume quintile of gap days, the 5-day forward return is actually slightly negative on average. Filtering out these weak gaps eliminates most of the losers from the base rate calculation.

AMD Gaps Often Correlate With NVDA Moves

One of the quirks of trading AMD is that its gaps frequently follow NVDA's overnight behavior. If NVDA ran up after hours on news, AMD often gaps up the next morning in sympathy. The reverse is also true. Historically, the correlation between AMD's gap direction and NVDA's prior-day return has been roughly 0.55 — a meaningful cross-stock linkage.

This can be useful as a filter. An AMD gap up that isn't confirmed by a similar NVDA move is more likely to be idiosyncratic and less reliable as a momentum signal.

Using the Data

The simplest systematic approach: when AMD gaps up 1%+ with above-average opening volume, and NVDA is also up overnight, pull the current pattern and compare to historical analogs. If the analogs skew positive over 5-10 days, the gap is statistically supported.

curl -H "X-API-Key: cl_..." \ "https://chartlibrary.io/api/v1/intelligence?symbol=AMD&timeframe=rth"

Related reading: our NVDA gap up follow-through and sector rotation endpoints provide useful adjacent data for understanding semis-wide momentum.