Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on CSCO anchored at 2026-05-11 returned 245 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.51. The 5-day forward median is +0.21% with IQR [-3.73%, +2.82%] and hit-rate 52%. The 10-day median is -0.52%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-6.70%, +5.70%].
- n=245, 5d median +0.21%, IQR [-3.73%, +2.82%]
- Hit-rate: 52%
- Cohort consensus: 0.51
- Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLU (negative direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is sector_etf=XLU with negative direction (importance 1.75). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on CSCO today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.51 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-6.70%, +5.70%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.