Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on GILD anchored at 2026-05-08 returned 247 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.62. The 5-day forward median is +0.57% with IQR [-1.88%, +3.16%] and hit-rate 55%. The 10-day median is +1.20%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-4.11%, +5.18%].
- n=247, 5d median +0.57%, IQR [-1.88%, +3.16%]
- Hit-rate: 55%
- Cohort consensus: 0.62
- Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLU (positive direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is sector_etf=XLU with positive direction (importance 1.20). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on GILD today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.62 is in the high band — analogs agree on direction. This is an environment where the IQR is tradeable: stops at the 10th percentile (-4.11%), targets at the 75th percentile (+3.16%). Position sizing scales with the consensus.