Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on HIMS anchored at 2026-05-11 returned 196 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.21. The 5-day forward median is -0.21% with IQR [-3.45%, +2.67%] and hit-rate 48%. The 10-day median is -0.30%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-7.99%, +6.65%].
- n=196, 5d median -0.21%, IQR [-3.45%, +2.67%]
- Hit-rate: 48%
- Cohort consensus: 0.21
- Top 5d feature: realized_vol_20d (negative direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is realized_vol_20d with negative direction (importance 1.63). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on HIMS today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.21 is low — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, a macro catalyst, or simply a price move that strengthens the consensus).