Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on JPM anchored at 2026-05-14 returned 281 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.68. The 5-day forward median is -0.54% with IQR [-2.40%, +1.19%] and hit-rate 42%. The 10-day median is -0.76%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-3.68%, +3.07%].
- n=281, 5d median -0.54%, IQR [-2.40%, +1.19%]
- Hit-rate: 42%
- Cohort consensus: 0.68
- Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLY (negative direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is sector_etf=XLY with negative direction (importance 1.75). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on JPM today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.68 is in the high band — analogs agree on direction. This is an environment where the IQR is tradeable: stops at the 10th percentile (-3.68%), targets at the 75th percentile (+1.19%). Position sizing scales with the consensus.