Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on NVDA anchored at 2026-05-28 returned 285 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.44. The 5-day forward median is +0.77% with IQR [-1.83%, +3.57%] and hit-rate 60%. The 10-day median is +0.69%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-5.98%, +7.60%].
- n=285, 5d median +0.77%, IQR [-1.83%, +3.57%]
- Hit-rate: 60%
- Cohort consensus: 0.44
- Top 5d feature: macro_state=bullish (positive direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is macro_state=bullish with positive direction (importance 1.23). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on NVDA today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.44 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-5.98%, +7.60%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.