Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on TSLA anchored at 2026-06-04 returned 287 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.50. The 5-day forward median is +0.63% with IQR [-1.86%, +3.40%] and hit-rate 61%. The 10-day median is +1.14%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-4.90%, +5.90%].
- n=287, 5d median +0.63%, IQR [-1.86%, +3.40%]
- Hit-rate: 61%
- Cohort consensus: 0.50
- Top 5d feature: vrp (negative direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is vrp with negative direction (importance 1.88). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on TSLA today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.50 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-4.90%, +5.90%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.